AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

December 15, 2017

Corn futures are continuing their tight trading range on Friday, with most contracts down 1 to 1 1/4 cents. A private export sale of 134,503 MT of corn was sold to Costa Rica as announced by the USDA through their daily export reporting system. Total export commitments for corn are lagging last year by 24.74%, slipping a little from the previous week. At 23.766 MMT, they are 49% of the current USDA projection vs. the average of 53% for this week and last year’s 60%. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 45.3% of the Argentine corn crop had been planted as of Thursday, up 4.9% from last week. Informa now projects the 17/18 US corn yield at 176.6 bpa, compared to the USDA estimate of 175.4 bpa.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.47 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.55 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.64, down 1 cent

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.71, down 1 cent

Soybeans

December 15, 2017

Soybean futures are showing most contracts 1 to 2 1/4 cents lower at midday. January soy meal is down 10 cents/ton, as nearby Jan bean oil is 20 points lower. The USDA reported separate export sales of 126,000 MT of soybeans to Unknown Destinations, with 257,000 MT to China. Both sales were for 17/18 delivery. Soybean export commitments gained a little, but are still 12.3% lower than a year ago. With the newly updated USDA export projection at 2.225 bbu, commitments are 62% of that total. That is compared to 78% last year, and the average of 79%. This morning’s NOPA report indicated its members had crushed 163.546 mbu of soybeans during November. That was ahead of most expectations and 1.74% larger than November 2016. Soybean oil stocks were reported at 1.326 billion pounds at the end of November, larger than most estimates and 8.35% above the end of October. BAGE places the planting progress in Argentina at 63.5% complete, an increase of 10.3% from last week.

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.66, down 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.76 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.87 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $9.97 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal is at $321.50, down $0.10

Jan 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.98, down $0.20

Wheat

December 15, 2017

Wheat futures are currently down 2 to 3 cents in most CBT and KC contracts on Friday. MPLS contracts are seeing gains of 1 to 3 cents at midday. Private exporters reported a sale of 130,000 MT of SRW wheat to Unknown Destinations for 17/18 delivery, according to the USDA FAS reporting system. Wheat export commitments are 9.2% lower than this time last year. They have reached 69% of the new 975 million bushel WASDE forecast, vs. 75% last year and the average of 74% for this date. Informa updated their 2018 winter wheat acreage number to 31.093 million acres. 0.830 million acres lower than their previous estimate. The Argentine wheat harvest is 58.3% complete according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.16, down 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.15 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.19, up 2 cents

Cattle

December 15, 2017

Live cattle futures are mixed at midday, with nearby Dec up 95 and deferred contracts lower. Feeder cattle futures are mostly 27.5 to 52.5 cents lower on Friday. The CME feeder cattle index on December 13 was up 67 cents to $154.31. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday morning. Choice was up 75 cents at $201.79, with select 8 cents lower at $183.61. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was 475,000 head through Thursday, 2,000 head fewer than the previous week but 15,000 head larger than the same week last year. US beef export commitments are now 10.1% ahead of last year. Cash trade has yet to pick up this week, with bids of $114 reported so far today.

Dec 17 Cattle are at $117.225, up $0.950,

Feb 18 Cattle are at $119.500, up $0.350,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $120.600, up $0.300,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $145.975, down $0.275

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $143.825, down $0.525

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $144.200, down $0.500

Lean Hogs

December 15, 2017

Lean hog futures are trading steady to 35 cents higher so far on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 12/13 was down 22 cents to $64.64. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 21 cents at $77.52 in the Friday morning report. The butt and picnic were lower, with the rib down $5.17. The national base hog price was $1.12 higher at $57.72 this morning. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was 1,866,000 head WTD through Thursday. That was up 12,000 head from the previous week and 102,000 head more than the same week last year. US pork export commitments YTD are 6.8% larger than this time last year.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $67.650, up $0.025,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $72.475, up $0.225

May 18 Hogs are at $77.950, up $0.350

Cotton

December 15, 2017

Cotton futures are mostly 59 to 84 points in the green at midday. Total export commitments of all upland cotton are now 33.3% larger than this time last year, slipping a bit from last week. As a percent of the USDA projection, they are 73% booked, with the average pace at 62% and last year at 55%. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 65.95 cents/lb, 92 points higher than the previous week. The Cotlook A index was 125 points higher from the day prior on December 14 to 84.70 cents/lb. Online cash sales on the Seam jumped to 32,373 bales, with prices averaging 70.24 cents/lb, up 130 points from the previous day.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 76.17, up 84 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 76.31, up 68 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 76.56, up 59 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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