AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Futures Higher on Exports

November 21, 2019

Corn is higher by 1 1/2 to 2 1/4 cents this morning. A private export sale of 106,000 MT of 18/19 corn to unknown was reported this morning The international Grain Council updated it’s 19/20 outlook, forecasting corn production to be 1.103 BMT, a 5 MMT bump from their October forecast. Carryover was only given a 1 MMT increase mo/mo, because the IGC also increased corn consumption. Weekly corn export sales as of 11/14 were listed at 788,022 MT, which is 10.19% below last year’s weekly sales. That was the second largest weekly sale this MY, however. Trade ideas for the USDA Export Sales report were 400,000-900,000 MT. The update also showed weekly exports were 11.8% above last week at 673,060 MT (26.497 mbu). The accumulated exports have increased to 5.214 MT through the MY, averaging a growth rate of 14.6% over the last 5 weeks. Accumulated exports are still well below last year’s levels.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.69, up 2 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.79 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.85, up 2 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $3.90 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Are falling at Middays

November 21, 2019

So far on Thursday, trading has pushed soybean futures lower by 2 to 21/4 cents in the front months. Soybean meal is higher by $1.90/ton. Bean oil was 53 points lower at midday. Soybean Export sales were above expectations, with the USDA weekly update revealing net sales to be 1.516 MMT for the week ending 11/14. Soybean export shipments through the same week were 1.707 MMT (62.73 mbu). That was a MY high and 34.2% above the same week last year. Accumulated soybean exports are 13.6% above last year with 12.368 MMT (454.46 mbu) shipped. It was a slow week for soybean meal, as export sales were right at the low end of expectations with 196,434 MT. The unshipped commits are up to 3.334 MMT, which is 19.8% behind last year’s total through the first 7 weeks. Weekly exports for soymeal were tallied at 159,902 MT, a 41.8% drop off over the same week last year. As for bean oil, export sales were above expectations for the week ending 11/14, with the USDA reporting 39,137 MT of export sales.

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.02 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans are at $9.16 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.30, down 2 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans are at $9.41 3/4, down 2 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $301.70, up $1.90,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.67, down $0.53

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Thursday Wheat Lower at Midday

November 21, 2019

Wheat futures are down for Thursday, so far futures are falling for all exchanges- with MPLS and Chicago wheat down the most. The weekly Export Sales Report from the USDA came out this morning, showing that wheat was in line with expectations. The report indicated that 437,655 MT of wheat were sold through the week ending 11/14. That was an 83.41% increase over last week, and is 32.46% above the same week last year. The total unshipped commitments however are below last year’s pace, at 3.910 MMT. Accumulated exports are, however, 25.22% above last year’s pace, with the weekly update showing shipments to be 11.705 MMT. That is riding on a 6.97% wk/wk increase for all wheat shipments. The IGC published their 19/20 MY projections for world grain supplies and usage for their November update, although it showed no change from the October forecast. Japan purchased 119,998 MT of US and Canadian wheat in their weekly tender, with 65,368 MT from US. Algeria also purchased 500,000 in a recent tender, with most of the origin likely French.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.11 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.23 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $4.97, down 4 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Mixed Midday

November 21, 2019

Live cattle futures are giving back Wednesday gains on Thursday. Dec futures are seeing a small 2 cent gain supported by the higher cash trade, but the other front months are down by as much as 60 cents. Feeder cattle futures are down by triple digits ahead of Nov contract expiration. The 11/19 CME Feeder Cattle index was up 8 cents to $146.62. Analysts expect on average for October placements to be 12.2% higher yr/yr in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Cattle on feed as of Nov 1 are expected to be about 1.3% above last year’s Nov 1 number. Wholesale boxed beef prices are lower again for Thursday so far. Choice boxes are down $2.08, while select boxes dropped $1.21, tightening the spread to 22.57. So far this week trade has been reported in the $116 range in the South. Some sales of $116-117 have been reported in NE. The USDA’s weekly estimated FI cattle slaughter is up to 353,000 head through yesterday, that’s 10,000 head below the same week last year. Export Sales of beef were reported at 17,959 MT (2019) for the week ending on 11/14, with 3,247 MT for 2020. Shipments were reported at 29,886, the highest weekly total so far this year. Japan was the top destinations of 86,000 MT, with 1,134 MT headed to China (largest ever for the weekly report).

DEC 19 Cattle are at $119.325, up $0.025,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $124.950, down $0.525,

APR 20 Cattle are at $125.650, down $0.600,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.700, down $0.900

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.975, down $1.100

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.925, down $1.225

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Recover Some Losses

November 21, 2019

Hog futures look to find some support after a long week of losses. Thursday midday has nearby futures making gains of as much as $1.02. The 11/19 CME Lean Hog Index recovered $0.29 $59.58. Wednesday’s pork carcass cutout value fell Thursday morning by a sharp $6.05, with most primal cuts also lower. Hams were down $10.07 with Bellies $19.56 lower. USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/20 was up $0.33 to $42.66. The USDA Cold Storage Report comes out Friday afternoon. Wednesday FI hog slaughter was estimated at 493,000 head. Following Tuesday’s record daily slaughter, the weekly total is up to 1.480 million head. Weekly pork sales for the week ending 11/14 were tallied at 54,385 MT for 2019, with 36,424 MT for 2020 sales (most to China). Shipments were shows at 59,848 MT, with 12,979 MT headed to China and 16,600 MT to Japan.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $60.650, up $0.200,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $67.400, up $0.625

APR 20 Hogs are at $73.950, up $1.025

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Thursday Recovery for Cotton Futures

November 21, 2019

Cotton futures show a recovery, with nearby contracts as up by as much as 20 points with gains tailing off through time. The USDA updated weekly export sales for upland cotton, revealing that for the week ending 11/14 a total of 227,600 RB were sold, which was 35.04% behind last week’s multi-year high for weekly sales. That was the third largest for this MY. Another 58,200 RB were sold for 20/21. The shipments through the week ending 11/14 were 137,886 RB which raised the accumulated MY shipments to 2.748 MRB, that is 14.44% above last year’s pace and the highest through the first 16 weeks of the MY since 2008/09. The 11/20 Cotlook A Index was down another 60 points to 74.40 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton will be updated later this afternoon, the current AWP is 57.06 cents/lb.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 62.44, up 20 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 64.48, up 20 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.61, up 13 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 66.61, up 8 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353