AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

September 19, 2018

Corn futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 2 to 3 cents in the green. The weekly EIA report indicated that ethanol plants produced 1.051 million barrels per day during the week of 9/14. That was up 31,000 bpd from the week prior. If plants are taking downtime, it is hard to see in the numbers. Stocks of ethanol were shown at 22.746 barrels, cutting 148,000 barrels from the previous week. Gulf stocks were up 501,000 barrels, with the East Coast down 592,000. Analysts are expecting USDA to show 0.5-1.2 MMT in 2018/19 US corn export sales during the week of 9/13. A couple more South Korean buyers purchased 123,000 MT of optional origin corn on Wednesday, following purchases of 134,000 MT on Tuesday.

DEC 18 Corn closed at $3.45 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.58, up 2 1/2 cents,

MAY 19 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents

JUL 19 Corn closed at $3.73, up 2 1/4 cents

Soybeans Market Commentary

September 19, 2018

Soybean futures posted 15 to 16 cent gains in most contracts on Wednesday, taking back Tuesday’s losses plus some. Soybean meal was up $5.90/ton, while soy oil was 13 points higher. The range of trade estimates for 18/19 soybean export bookings in the week of Sept 13 is 400,000-900,000 MT. Soy meal expectations are running 50,000-350,000 MT, with 0-30,000 MT in soy oil sales. The National average cash price according to DTN was $7.12 on Tuesday evening. That would put the national basis at -1.02, nearly 32 1/2 cents below last year at this time. According to a Stats Canada survey, canola production for 2018 is expected at 21 MMT, down 1.33 MMT from 2017 production. China sold 92,988 MT of 2013 soybeans from an auction of state reserves on Wednesday.

NOV 18 Soybeans closed at $8.30, up 16 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.43 3/4, up 15 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $8.57 1/4, up 15 3/4 cents,

MAY 19 Soybeans closed at $8.70 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents,

OCT 18 Soybean Meal closed at $306.40, up $5.90,

OCT 18 Soybean Oil closed at $27.25, up $0.13

Wheat Market Commentary

September 19, 2018

Wheat futures saw 10 to 12 cent gains in most CBT and KC contracts on Wednesday, with MPLS up 5 to 7 3/4 cents. Expectations ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report are for 250,000-500,000 MT in all wheat bookings for the week that ended on 9/13. A Stats Canada survey showed expected all wheat production at 31.02 MMT for 2018, up 1.04 MMT from the production total in 2017. Durum accounted for 0.75 MMT in that jump at 5.71 MMT in 2018. Global buying interest has really picked up in recent days, notably in North Africa and extending over to Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Syria purchased 200,000 MT of Russian wheat in a tender this week as well.

DEC 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.22 1/2, up 12 cents,

DEC 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.26 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents,

DEC 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.88, up 7 3/4 cents

Cattle Market Commentary

September 19, 2018

Live cattle futures closed Wednesday trade with most contracts steady to 20 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were mixed on the day, with front months 10 to 42.5 cents lower and deferred contracts higher. The CME feeder cattle index on September 18 was down 54 cents at $153.08. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1.04 to $205.25, while Select boxes were $1.23 lower at $194.18. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 353,000 head through Wednesday. That is down 4,000 from last week but 7,000 head above the same week in 2017. This morning’s FCE auction saw no sales on the 528 head offered, with asks around $111-111.50. Analysts are expecting (Reuters survey) that the USDA will show August placements of 2.013 million head on Friday up 4.4% from last year, with marketings during that month up 0.4% at 1.987 million head.

OCT 18 Cattle closed at $113.100, down $0.125,

DEC 18 Cattle closed at $117.975, unch,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $121.850, unch,

SEP 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $155.625, down $0.200

OCT 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $158.350, up $0.325

NOV 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $158.125, up $0.300

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

September 19, 2018

Lean hog futures settled Wednesday mixed with nearby Oct up 82.5. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.10 on September 17 to $54.58. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 82 cents higher at $78.39 in the Wednesday afternoon FOB plant report. The national base hog carcass value was up $3.15 @ $56.21 on Wednesday afternoon. FI hog slaughter through Wednesday was estimated at 1.272 million head. That is down 66,000 head from last week and 87,000 head from the same week last year. So far reports are showing losses of 5,500 head of hogs due to the Hurricane. Others are backing up at the farm and some big kills are going to be needed.

OCT 18 Hogs closed at $60.000, up $0.825,

DEC 18 Hogs closed at $57.900, down $0.075

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $65.950, up $0.150

Cotton Market Commentary

September 19, 2018

Cotton futures were 2 to 92 points higher in most contracts on Wednesday. A little buying support was from profit taking after Tuesday’s sharp losses, with the US dollar also weaker on the day. The weekly Export Sales report will be released on Thursday, with traders closely monitoring the volume going to China. The Cotlook A index was down 50 points from the previous day at 90.80 cents/lb on September 18. The USDA AWP is currently at 73.79 cents/lb, and will be updated on Thursday.

OCT 18 Cotton closed at 80.07, up 92 points,

DEC 18 Cotton closed at 78.8, up 28 points

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 79.25, up 12 points

MAY 19 Cotton closed at 79.92, up 3 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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