Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Fri Nov 08, 4:47PM CST

Dec Corn lost 12 cents for the week, but futures did ride into the weekend on Friday gains of 2 cents or more. The USDA announced this morning a private export sale of 217,040 MT of corn to unknown for 19/20 delivery. That was icing on the cake. This morning’s NASS Crop Production report showed a 1.4 bpa reduction to the 2019 corn yield projection, taking it to 167 bpa. That dropped production to13.661 billion bushels, down 118 mbu from Oct. US ending stocks were cut 19 mbu by the USDA to 1.910 bbu as demand was also lowered, total projected usage took a 50 mbu cut. Exports were cut by 50 projected mbu. The average farm price as per USDA was up to $3.85. Shifting focus to the world numbers, world corn carryout was down 6.64 MMT from last month to 295.96 MMT. The Commitment of Traders report this afternoon showed that managed money was still net short for Corn futures, but had grown the position to over 100,000 contracts for the first time since 10/1.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.86 1/4, up 2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.93 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.99 3/4, up 2 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Nov beans lost 4 3/4 cents over the week. Soybean futures lost as much as 5 1/2 cents in the nearby contracts on Friday alone. Soybean meal finished the session lower by $0.70 /ton, eating into but not erasing the $1/ ton gain on the week. Soybean oil also made a weekly increase, finishing 47 points higher over last Friday’s close. The Crop Production report by NASS this morning left the 2019 bean yield projection at 46.9 bpa, whereas most analysts were expecting a small cut. The harvested acreage estimate for 2019/20 beans is 75.626 which is in line with the October forecast. The USDA left production at 3.550 billion bushels. US ending stocks were raised 15 mbu in the report (drop in crush), and are now projected at 475 bbu. World bean carryout was above what analysts anticipated, adjusted up 2.2 MMT from last month to 95.42 MMT. A private export sale of 270,000 MT of soybeans were announced this morning, for unknown destinations and 19/20 MY delivery. The Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money’s net long position for soybean futures shrank by 19.2% as of 11/5. Soybean meal saw a larger net short position wk/wk, bean oil, on the other hand, saw a 12.33% growth in managed money’s net long position.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.18 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.31, down 5 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.44, down 4 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.55 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $303.00, down $0.70,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $31.00, up $0.07

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Kansas City wheat futures were 5 1/2 cents lower at the end of the week, riding a 2 1/4 to 3 1/4 cent loss into Friday’s close. SRW Chicago wheat finished with 1 to 3 cent losses, pushing the wk/wk loss to 5 3/4 cents. MLPS wheat futures were higher after the report’s release but have since cooled off to close fractionally lower. HRS wheat finished the week 13 cents lower. The WASDE reports from this morning showed a 29 mbu reduction to the 2019 US ending stocks, and are now forecasted to be 1.014 bbu. USDA cut harvested acres by 900,000 after the re-survey. World Wheat ending stocks are bumped up 0.42 MMT over last month to 288.28 MMT. Analysts were expecting, on average, a reduction, so this came as a surprise to the market. The US accumulated exports through the first 22 weeks of the MY are 10.766 MMT, which is up 25.47% over last MY’s pace. The CFTC released their commitment of traders report, and showed that managed money flipped the two week trend for Chicago wheat, returning to a net short position. They grew their net short with KC wheat, and MLPS was net shorted by 9,044 contracts as of 11/5.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.11 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.19, down 3 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.18 1/2, down 1/4 cent

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures closed with gains of 27 to 35 cents for nearby contracts, pulling the weekly change up to 22 1/2 cents above last Friday. Nov feeder cattle dropped $2.15 over the week, with nearby futures closing Friday with gains of 10 to 22 cents. The WASDE indicated that US 4th quarter beef production is 88 million lbs higher than October’s projection, forecasted to bring the yearly production to 27,036 million lbs (about 1% above last year). Wholesale boxed beef prices continue to increase. Choice boxes are up another $0.83 to $239.12, and select boxes gained $0.24 to close at $213.26. The bonus online auction from FCE today sold 119 of the 1684 head offered, all from KS at $115 (55% choice grade); KS and TX feedlots passed on $113 bids. Cash trades reported to the USDA were at $115 in TX, $114 for KS, as much as $117 for the WCB, and 116$ in Nebraska. Nebraska also saw some Friday dressed cash sales of $181. The 11/06 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 17 cents to $146.09. CFTC reported that as of Tuesday, managed money was net long for live cattle futures by the largest amount since May. Feeder cattle futures were also net long (by 91 contracts), the first time managed money had been since April. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter WTD including Saturday, is 651,000 head.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $119.300, up $0.300,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $125.125, up $0.275,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $126.200, up $0.350,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.425, up $0.225

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.875, up $0.100

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.500, unch,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures see increases of 12 to 17 cents for upcoming Feb and Apr contracts. Nearby Dec futures finished 17 cents lower, carrying a 32 1/2 cents loss on the week. Managed money was firm as of 11/5, keeping their CFTC position net long by 13,258 contracts and only a 4.2% reduction over last week. The 11/06 CME Lean Hog Index regained $0.03 to $60.19. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value was $2.03 higher on the day, with ham up the most $5.12. The national average base hog price was down 39 cents, closing the week at $44.95. This morning’s WASDE report updated 4th quarter pork production estimates to 7.46 billion lbs to bring the 2019 production to 27.620 billion lbs. The USDA estimated week total Hog slaughter is 2.693 million head through Saturday.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $64.125, down $0.175,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $73.900, up $0.125

APR 20 Hogs closed at $80.325, up $0.175

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures made gains of 16 to 31 points on Friday, helping to push the wk/wk gains to 28 points for upcoming Dec. December cotton options expired today. The Cotton Ginnings report showed that the MY total cotton ginned is up to 6.249 million (480-lb) bales. Cotton yield was down 34 to 799 lbs per acre in the Crop Production report, 7.5% lower than last year. The ending stocks estimate was reduced to 6.1 million bales from 7 million in the October WASDE report. USDA’s world cotton ending stocks figure tightened to 80.8 million bales from 83.69 million in October. They project the 19/20 MY world exports to be 42.91 million bales. Managed Money, as the CFTC reported, expanded their net short position for cotton by 150% wk/wk, and as of 11/5 was net short by 15,247 contracts. The Cotlook A Index for 11/7 was down by 25 points, to 74.70 cents/lb. The AWP is now 56.63 cents/lb, down

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.79, up 16 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 66.35, up 31 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 67.6, up 25 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 68.73, up 19 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

70 points from the previous week.






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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